How to Win Q4: It's not about more spend, it's about smarter scenarios

The Q4 budget planning is underway, and for many brands, it's the most critical period of the year. But it's also a minefield. You're facing a perfect storm of challenges & opportunities:

➡️Expensive media costs**:** Expect a 15-30% rise across platforms like YouTube, Meta, and TV (focused on Nov/ Dec)

➡️Surging market demand**:** Q4 retail sales are, on average, 8% higher than the rest of the year. In many non-food categories, that Q4 increase is higher.

➡️Customers expecting discounts - especially at Black Friday

So, how do you plan your media given these changing factors?

We use our Linea scenario planning platform to calculate how & when to invest media budgets. To do that, we need two main factors:

✅Set clear objectives, not budgets

At this important trading period, you will likely have stretch goals. I recommend starting with the goal and not the spend level. This process will also help demonstrate if your allocated budget is too low (or even too high). Your target should be one of two things:

1. How much revenue or New Customer volume do you want to generate?
2. Target ROAS/ CPA: if discounting, then you need to increase the target ROAS

Image: How to win Q4

✅Overlay the what-if factors

Q4 is all about variables. We dynamically adjust for factors like:

• Cost inflation: See the impact of a 10%/15%/20% increase in CPMs on your return
• Increased demand: Model how a 5%/ 8%/10% lift in baseline sales affects the efficiency of your media channels.
• Pricing changes: use past experience of offers to predict how this will impact response rates.

This transparency and access to the model let you build trust and see exactly how these external factors influence your performance, helping you make informed decisions rather than reactive ones.

Last insights on Q4. Start early.