How to Allocate Your Media Budget Between TikTok and Meta for Maximum ROI

Your measurement says that TikTok has a higher ROI than Meta. So you shift all your budget, right?

Not so fast.

A single ROI number can be misleading. That's because it’s just an average, and averages don't account for variation.

To make smarter investment decisions, you need to consider two critical factors:

1. Scale: How much can we realistically spend on each channel?
   1. Did we spend the same amount on each campaign? If that measured result was based only on a small TikTok spend. Then there is a high chance that scaling may end up losing some degree of efficiency. See more here
2. Uncertainty: How confident are we in that ROI number?

Focus on uncertainty

In this simplified example, a deeper look that would typically accompany an MMM or experiment would also include a confidence level. Note that last click attribution wouldn’t show this variation.

This might reveal:

➡️Meta: An ROI of £4 with a tight range (e.g., £3.50 to £4.50). We are highly confident in this outcome.

➡️TikTok: An ROI of £5 with a wide range (e.g., £3 to £7). The average is higher, but the outcome is less certain.

Simply allocating to the channel with the highest average ROI ignores this risk. This is why we need to move beyond single-number reporting.

Risk-based budget allocation

At Linea Analytics, our always-on MMM approach goes beyond the average. We provide tools that let you run multiple scenarios and make decisions based on your business objectives and risk appetite.

Instead of a single "optimal" budget, we give you the power to model a:

• High-risk scenario: Increase allocation to TikTok to capture high growth potential.
• Low-risk scenario: Allocate equally to both Meta and TikTok for a more balanced, reliable return.

The answer to your marketing allocation isn't a single outcome. It’s building multiple scenarios that align with your strategy & objectives.